Jakub Majmurek: Can we say that Andrej Babiš will surely return to power after the election?
Jan Bělíček: That's beautiful sure. The question remains whether it is Babiš, his closest associate, Karel Havlíček, will become Prime Minister and with whom Babiša party, ANO, will form a government.
What are the possible coalitions?
The first is the "coalition position quo", an ANO agreement with part of the ruling government coalition today, most likely with conservative ODS. But there may besides be an anti-establishment coalition, e.g. with an utmost right-wing SPD party, or with a right- populist driver formation for Himself, she besides has a chance to exceed the 5% electoral threshold. ANO can besides communicate with the Stačilo coalition! – its main part is the Communist organization of Bohemia and Moravia, with its letter besides started by social democrats and right-wing populists.
Who would Babiš want to regulation with?
He leaves all his options open. However, there is simply a clear difference with the 2021 campaign. At the time, ANO campaigned mainly against the Liberal Pirate organization and against migration, presenting itself as an anti-establishment formation. present he is trying to position himself as a moderate, balanced force, the only 1 able to warrant liable governments.
So it can be assumed that Babiš would be happy to form a government with ODS. In specified a script there would be a chance that the government would manage not Babiš, but Havlíček – this could be an ODS condition. Babiš as Prime Minister is problematic for this party, even due to the conflict of interest created by the situation erstwhile the government is headed by the richest man in the country, and with powerful influences in agribusiness.
It is besides said that Babiš might want to regulation together with Stačilo!, and especially with the Social Democrats elected from his letter. There are rumours that he persuaded the leader of the Social Democrats, Jana Maláčova – who was the minister of work in his government – to agree with the communists and start with Stačilo's letter!, so that he could then regulation with the support of the Social Democratic MPs.
The SPD coalition is simply a script that Babiš would like to avoid at any cost, due to the fact that it is the hardest, most unpredictable partner.
The Babiš government will change Czech policy towards Ukraine? Will he decision to friendly Russia? Will he quit the "armistic initiative" with which the Fiala government came out?
During the last fewer months of the campaign, ANO MPs went to the media and argued that it was during their regulation that the largest number of Russian agents were expelled from the country, that ANO supported Ukraine, and the ammunition initiative criticized only due to the fact that it was accompanied by corrupt mechanisms. Compared to the run in 2021, the ANO position is much more friendly in this run Ukraine.
On the another hand, the reality of the Ukrainian policy of the future government depends on who Babiš will form a coalition with. If with the SPD, communists or drivers, his government will conduct a policy weakening Ukraine's war effort, more or little openly anti-European. The SPD is demanding a referendum on the continued presence of the Czechs in the European Union, Stačilo! besides in NATO.
However, if it comes to the ODS coalition, Babiš may as well be set up as a pro-European politician supporting NATO and Ukraine. On the another hand, Babiš's activity in the European arena is concerned, where ANO together with National Unification Marine Le Pen and Fidesh Viktora Orbána creates a Euro-Parliamentary Patriotic faction for Europe. This is simply a large political project, calculated for years, designed to weaken European integration.
What can the European policy of the Babiš Government look like? The Czech Republic will enter into a dispute with the European Commission – for example around Green Deal?
This was a very crucial subject in the campaign, ANO and right- populist parties have repeatedly promised to end the Green Deal. But it is besides worth remembering that Babiš is simply a very small ideological policy, much little than Orbán or even the Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fico. His European policy will not be ideological either.
The Babiš government can make a Eurosceptic and reluctant further assistance of Ukraine "axle" with the governments of Fico and Orbán?
Among Czech journalists there is simply a lively dispute about this, opinions are powerfully divided. In my opinion, it is clear that Babiš is fascinated by Orbán and his kind of politics, orbán in turn supported Babiš's run earlier. 1 of the most crucial political marketing specialists working with ANO present lives regular in Budapest and has excellent contacts in Fidesz. Both parties, as I said, cooperate in the European Parliament, both have contacts in the current American administration.
Today Babiš presents himself as a pragmatic politician who wants to be good for Europe and Ukraine. However, both in the country and in the European arena, he is willing to cooperate with forces whose policies would lead to the collapse of Ukraine's defensive effort.
Babiš is into Trump?
He was, surely fascinated by Trump as an example of a strong leader. At 1 point he even had a red cap with the inscription “Strong Czech Republic”. This has changed a small since Trump began to regulation and impose duties on Europe. This clearly amazed the ANO leaders. In a fresh tv debate, Karel Havlíček criticised Trump's customs policy as striking Czech interests.
Why does Babiš return after 4 years? What happened to the current government losing support?
After the 2021 election, I warned in my texts: if the fresh government does not propose any social policy, if it does not address the Czechs' surviving problems, it will not fulfill the promise of the Marshall plan for poorer Czech regions, then Babiš will return even stronger in the next election. That's precisely what's happening today.
For the last 4 years, the government has conducted classically neoliberal politics. You may resent Donald Tusk in Poland, but compared to ours, he drew any conclusions from the populist rule.
What's the biggest problem? Unemployment, life costs, access to housing?
In the Czech Republic, unemployment is the lowest in the EU. At the same time, real salaries have been in place since 2019, so it can be said that the statistical Czech Republic throughout the Fiala governments has not seen improvements in its home budget. At the time, inflation was among the highest in the European Union. Prices of basic foods are very high. The situation in the housing marketplace is terrible. Young people have a problem renting an apartment, let alone buying.
So, these live subjects dominated the campaign?
Yes, although abroad policy issues – especially with Russia – and the Green Deal besides played an crucial role. A very crucial subject was the improvement of the pension strategy introduced by the Fiala government, expanding the retirement age from 65 to 67 and tightening the conditions for early retirement. These changes were very socially unpopular, ANO promises to reverse them.
The ANO electorate is the most affected by the neo-liberal politics of the current government?
They are surely people for whom life issues are more crucial than geopolitics. due to the fact that European issues and support for Ukraine are the most inflaming problems of the large-town mediate class with unchangeable surviving conditions. Babiš is voted by people who are hard on a regular basis, struggling to keep a standard of living. At the same time, the regions of the country in the most hard situation do not necessarily vote for the ANO, they tend more towards utmost parties specified as SPD or Stačilo!
The Babiš government can actually aid the voters who live hard today?
I don't think they'll be any worse off than under Fiala. The Czechs see Babiš's first governments as rather competent in economical matters, despite all problems with corruption and conflicts of interest. In fact, e.g. the Ministry of Education belonged to any of the most competent after the fall of communism. At least to the pandemic and the inflation caused by it, people mention Babiš's times as a period erstwhile the standard of their lives grew.
At the same time, there are no convincing proposals on issues specified as ANO housing. Despite how much was said in the run on housing problems of young people, no organization presented a sensible thought for change.
Babiš's subsequent governments will be an chance for systemic corruption, at least conflict of interest and a threat to independent civilian society, as his opponents put it?
During his first reign Babiš increased his and so powerful estate. As you can imagine, if he returns to power, he can gain additional wealth. What is the opposition as a full agrees that public media must be more straight subdued to politicians and that the fresh government will most likely be heading this way.
As far as civilian society is concerned, much depends on who the ANO will regulation with. SPD and Stačilo! These are hostile formations to independent civilian society, they want to destruct them and take distant their financing opportunities. If they gain influence on the fresh government, he can go that way.
The run could observe Russia's hybrid actions, likewise as in Moldova?
The government underlines that there is no real threat of Russian intervention disrupting the electoral process. However, as in many countries of the erstwhile east Bloc, the Czech Republic besides sees the presence in the network of various types of favorable Russian narratives – if not the beginning of pro-Russians, it undermines support for Ukraine or anti-Europeans. They aid to publicize them specified parties as SPD and communists, building their popularity on it. It is not as much a problem as in Slovakia, but it is visible.
Over the last 5 years, anti-Western anti-European sentiments have intensified in the Czech Republic?
The question is what does pro-European or anti-Western mean today. Is Trump, reluctant to Green Deal and the European Commission, an anti-Western right? Or does he think that the real West is Trump and not the European Union? It is worth remembering that in the Czech Republic for 10 years (2003-2013) the president was Vaclav Klaus, a politician with strong Eurosceptic views. Skepticism towards deepening European integration and opposing the federalisation of Europe has always been an crucial emotion in Czech politics. So Euroscepticism SPD, Stačilo! and drivers is nothing new.
Or outside Stačilo! There is no left in the Czech Republic that is socially attached to liberal, pro-European and progressive democracy?
In the erstwhile elections there was specified a list, called Left and won little than 1% of support. In the past, social democrats could be considered specified a humanist left. Their electorate, however, took over Babiš, who began as a junior partner in a coalition dominated by social democrats, and ended up virtually sinking the organization completely. Today, I feel that the Social Democrats have completely given up on the ambition to build specified a left, hence the coalition with communists and groups actually far right within Stačilo!
What about the Pirates and the Greens? They don't service as specified a left?
Pirates were for a long time part of the coalition forming the Fiala government and supported its neoliberal policies, so it is hard to talk of any of their peculiar social sensitivity. Greens actually have any interesting left-wing proposals. At the same time, they launch from the list of Pirates under an highly unfavourable agreement. Their leader is, for example, 12 on the Prague pirate list, almost precisely in the mediate of the list – which does not only give a large chance for a ticket, but is besides simply humiliating for the Greens. A joint start with the Pirates may end in specified a way that no of the Greens will even take a ticket.
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Jan Bělíček – he is simply a literary critic and journalist. He studied doctrine and Czech language and literature at the Philosophical Faculty of Charles University. He is the editor-in-chief of the online diary Alarm.cz, which he co-wrote in 2013. His articles on literature, politics and culture were published in the diary “E15”, in the addition “Salon Práva”, in the weekly “Respekt”, in Czech Radio Vltava programs and in another media. It systematically explores phenomena and phenomena on the border between art, society and politics.
