Krystian Kamiński.
At the end of last week, Ukrainian media leaked about Donald Trump's alleged peace plan for Ukraine. The media claimed that the leaks came from Ukrainian diplomacy, but they themselves received specified information besides from European political circles, not American ones. This would mean Trump works completely within the logic of a power concert, recognising as natural that first the framework negotiations prepare the powers, and then it is only possible to start consultations with weaker countries, even if the diplomatic tender concerns them.
Well, it supposedly leaked from Washington, D.C., and through Europe, Kiev happened. The assumptions of the alleged "Trump plan", or possibly only his co-workers, are stated in the Ukrainian portal:
– Donald Trump is to talk to Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenski at the beginning of February. In that order. Judging from the rumors of the fresh US president talking to Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen about Greenland status, Trump can go hard on specifics already during telephone calls;
– during February-March a tripartite gathering between Trump and Putin and Zelenski, possibly 2 separate meetings with the president of Russia and Ukraine, is scheduled to take place. This would consequence in the approval of ‘the main parameters of the peace plan’;
– this framework will then be filled in concrete by talks of specially appointed diplomats, from Washington would most likely be a peculiar envoy for Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg;
– in the event of Moscow blocking talks, Trump would increase material assistance for Ukraine;
– full ceasefire in Ukraine and Russia until 20 April;
– before 9 May, a peace conference attended by Russia, Ukraine, the USA and their elected allies, China, representatives of the “Global South”.
– after the conference has approved the peace agreement, Ukraine would cancel the martial law, organise elections of the fresh president of Ukraine in August, and in October parliamentary and local elections;
– Ukraine will approve the position of its neutrality in its legislation. NATO will officially evidence that it will not accept Ukraine;
“Ukraine will commit itself not to undertake military and political efforts to recover the territories seized during the war by Moscow, although it will not gotta recognise this in its legal and global form. Russia will keep control of war prey;
“Ukraine will be admitted to the European Union after 2030. The EU will be liable for rebuilding this country from war damage;
– there will be no quantitative and qualitative restrictions on the armed forces of Ukraine. The Americans will proceed to support their modernisation;
– part of the anti-Russian sanctions will be lifted as shortly as the peace agreement is concluded. The remainder in 3 years, depending on Russia's fulfilment of the parameters of the agreement. Any restrictions on Russian energy imports to the EU will be lifted. However, for any time it will be subject to a peculiar work imposed by the EU, the gross from which it is to be allocated for the reconstruction of Ukraine;
– parties in favour of cooperation with Russia, defending the position of Russian language, are to be given a field of unfettered activity;
– the same applies to the church subject to the Moscow Patriarchate. Ukraine is to warrant its freedom of action.
The relation as "particularly problematic" identifies the issue of the military contingent of Western states in the post-war territory of Ukraine, to be left for further negotiations. According to their accounts, the Trump administration refuses to affect US forces. This task would be to shoulder European allies of the United States. Last year, specified proposals have already been specifically translated into the unofficial body of the American safety and Diplomatic elite "Foreign Affairs". It was mentioned that their soldiers would send France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Poland to Ukraine. The media reports the talks of these 2 first countries. Contrary to Donald Tusk's assurances, I think Poland is already going through these unofficial talks, which is why I call on the public to stay vigilant in this matter.
AMERICAN PLAN FOR UKRAINA
At the end of last week, Ukrainian media leaked about Donald Trump's alleged peace plan for Ukraine. The media claimed that the leaks came from Ukrainian diplomacy, but they themselves... pic.twitter.com/CE7x7Uqiye
Poland cannot be active in specified a mission. We ourselves are a country bordering Russia and we have besides much request for besides small own resources to affect them in Ukraine.
I besides believe that the European contingent will not warrant the safety and stableness of Ukraine. The European NATO states are incapable to send, as Volodymyr Zelenski would like, 200,000 soldiers. At best, most likely a quarter. Under this micry, for the Ukrainian contingent, there will be no atomic power comparable to Russian power, hence it will become a place for aggressive investigating by Russians. Especially Poles would be tested, given our socio-political instability and institutional-procedural weakness. I do not think that Europeans would at this point appear from these tests victoriously, with the shield of deterrence. Without Americans, there is no counterweight against Russia in Ukraine. The absence of U.S. soldiers in the Ukrainian field would make Trump's ability to retreat from all guarantees.
Trump refuses to send soldiers to Ukraine, which would be in sharp contradiction with his promises to the electorate about the end of an era of scarce military intervention in distant theatres on which the US's peculiar interest, not "world system" or "rule-based order", is not straight clear.
I so believe that the Ukrainians will defy specified a plan without clear guarantees for what will stay of Ukraine. Of course, Americans have powerful jacks on them. However, I believe that Putin will besides defy specified a plan. He most likely wants to proceed the military operation until he masters the full territory of the Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporosk region, which was officially annexed by Russia in September 2022 entirely to his administrative borders.
Besides, as I have already written, since December 2021 we know that Putin is not about Ukraine itself, but about the broader arrangement of Russia-NATO relations throughout the region.
Entry American Plan for Ukraine pochodzi z serwisu Confederation.
