The U.S. election consequence is not so much Donald Trump's triumph as the Democrat's loss. And the origin of this defeat is not that the president of the United States Joe Biden He withdrew besides late from the race or that Kamali Harris lacked competence. The thing is, the Democrats lost the support of the working class and failed to recover it.
Party stopped to be a refuge for American workers long ago erstwhile she supported globalisation, the digital collapse in the economy, the influx of immigrants and the thought of "woke". Today, voters from high educationnot physical workers. Poverty of Democracy both in the USA and worldwide, if the centre does not stand firm on the workers' side.
The Democrats managed to win any elections thanks to the support of Silicon Valley, minorities, parts of trade unions and highly skilled workers from large cities, but these successes were never lasting. specified a coalition causes the working class and mediate class to alienate in a large part of the country, especially in smaller cities and in the south. This problem was seen as shortly as the 2016 election – and that is why Biden adopted a strategy for manufacture in 2020 to support workers.
The Biden economy actually gave the working class what they needed – jobs and strengthening the American industrial base. The lowest wages increased significantly, and government policy in areas specified as immigration, protectionism, union support and public investment began to coincide with workers' views. However, the organization establishment, especially the highly educated activists focused in the thriving cities on both coasts, never took to heart the cultural and economical concerns of the working class. Democrats frequently acted as if they were giving lectures or reprimands to employees.
I propose specified a thought experimentation – my test for the state of the relation between democrats and American workers. If individual from the Democratic organization were stuck in a abroad city, would he like to spend another 4 hours talking to an American individual from the Midwest who graduated from advanced school, or a specialist from Mexico, China or Indonesia with a master's degree? All the friends to whom I ask this question believe that the second option is much more likely.
Harris chose mediate class and patriotism, so she initially seemed ready to address the problem. If she had been convincing, a real effort to regain the support of her employees could have allowed her to win these elections. However, in the end, Harris' run focused on issues that substance most to her electoral base.
The most serious effort to grow the coalition was to usage Liz Cheney (daughter of erstwhile vice president Dick Cheney, Republican and erstwhile congresswoman who remained exiled from her own party) to example gaining support women from the suburbs on abortion. Reproduction freedom is most likely 1 of the cardinal problems to deal with, but this 1 issue could never suffice for the Democrats to take over the working class's votes – and surely not the male part.
As far as the economy is concerned, Democrats can talk to the bottom line about opportunities for all and good jobs, but until they distance themselves from the elite of the technology manufacture and global business, specified slogans will not translate into a real program aimed at workers. Working class saw through it. Now erstwhile – as ironically – even Silicon Valley begins to diverge from democrats, it is the best time to change course.
Such a change, however, will be hard erstwhile Republicans led by Trump and J. D. Vance They've become The main political standing for workers – especially those in the manufacturing sector and in smaller cities – and erstwhile the leading Democrats so clearly separated culturally from the working class and from much of the mediate class.
The tragedy is that although Biden's programme has already started to bring first benefits to workers (which proves that globalisation and the increase in inequality are not just blind forces of nature, with which nothing can be done), the policy of the next administration will almost surely aid the Plutocrats. High duties to products imported from China will not bring back jobs that have left the country and will surely not aid keep inflation in check. While Biden's pandemic solutions (which imposed on Trump's stimulus package) actually fueled inflation, the national Reserve strategy managed to reconstruct price stabilisation. If Trump, however, wants to gain more popularity, pressures Fed to lower interest rates, inflation can return.
In turn, the promotion of the cryptocurrency sector by the Trump administration will likely consequence in more scams and more investment bubbles, and in no way will it aid American workers and consumers. The proposed taxation cuts will mainly support corporations and the stock market, and the full resulting increase in investment will mainly go to the technological sector and automation.
The next 4 years of high-tech policy could be a disaster for workers. Biden spent it. valid Regulation on artificial intelligence, but this is only the first step. Without appropriate regulation of the AI, many industries will be devastated, will scope common manipulation Consumers and citizens (look only at social media) and the real possible of this technology, i.e. the anticipation of supporting workers and workers never happens. On the side of large corporations and investors from Silicon Valley, Trump administration will accelerate the trend automationthat eliminates jobs.
Hazard to institutionswhich is Trump will besides harm workers. It is no secret that Trump will further violate democratic standards, introduce a origin of uncertainty into state policies, deepen polarisation and undermine assurance in institutions specified as courts and the Department of Justice (from which he will effort to make political weapons). This will not immediately lead to an economical collapse, and in the close future it may even encourage the companies favoured by it (e.g. from the fossil fuels industry) to invest in certain areas. However, in the average word – in a period of, say, about 10 years – weakened institutions and failure of public assurance in courts will affect investment and efficiency.
Institutions' weaknesses are always a cost to economics and can prove to be a real nail to the coffin of the economy, which is based on innovation and complex, highly advanced technologies, requiring greater support in agreements, trust between different parties and religion in the regulation of law. Without the regulation of experts, our economy – from wellness care and education to online business and consumer services – will mostly trust on peddling people with crap alternatively of high-quality products and services.
And if the economy loses its ability to stimulate innovation and productivity growth, wages stagnate. However, even in the face of specified adverse effects of Republican policy, many workers will not return to democrats – unless the organization truly takes their interests to heart.
This would mean not only conducting a policy raising the income of the working class, but besides speaking its language, nevertheless abroad it may be to the elites of the East and West Coast, who have just set the organization on the ground.
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Daron Acemiglu – lecturer in economics at MIT. Together with Simon Johnson and James A. Robinson, he received the Alfred Nobel Prize of the Bank of Sweden in economical Sciences in 2024. Co-author (with Simon Johnson) of the book Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year conflict Over Technology and Prosperity (PublicAffairs, 2023).
Copyright: task Syndicate, 2024. www.project-syncicate.org. From English he translated Maciej Domagała.
