There is no indication that 2024 would bring more peace than 2023. Not only in Poland – where as shortly as the PiS protest on TVP expires, there will be precampations for local elections. We are facing possibly politically turbulent months, including a fewer very crucial for the future of the planet of elections.
Asia chooses
The first 1 will be held in little than half a period in Taiwan – on 13 January the island's inhabitants will elect a president. In the polls for now, he is somewhat leading the current Vice president Lai Ching-te. He is simply a supporter of the greater independency of the island, known for his critical attitude towards the People's Republic of China and the ruling Communist organization of China.
Analysts wonder how Beijing will respond to Laia's eventual victory. It is possible that we are facing an increase in tension in the region. In order to item its opposition to Taiwanese choice and to emphasise that Taiwan is simply a ‘rebellious province’ from the point of view of Beijing, the PRC may organise fleet and military aviation maneuvers around the island. Provocations, e.g. in the form of breach of Taiwan's airspace, are not excluded, although analysts foretell that a full-scale invasion of the island is unlikely.
But if it had happened, it could have happened. The beginning of planet War III, an open armed conflict between Beijing and Washington. At present, after the November visit of president Xi Jinping to the United States, there has been any relaxation in American-Chinese relations. It may not last long, but it may be adequate to dampen China's consequence to the Taiwanese election.
The spring elections will take place in the most populous democracy in the planet – in India. All polls and analyses indicate that the current Prime Minister Narendra Modi without a problem, he will have a 3rd term. In 2023 India chaired the G20 Group and Modi pursued a very ambitious global policy to make India a bridge between the global South and developed countries. 1 can anticipate Modi's 3rd triumph to only strengthen his global ambitions.
Modi is frequently compared to Western right-wing populists, his governments have a definite authoritarian twist. However, it is genuinely supported by the majority of the people of India and the democratic mandate it will receive will be authentic.
We will not say the same about the winners of next year's elections in another South Asian countries. January elections in Bangladesh will be boycotted by the main opposition party, elections in Pakistan in February are held erstwhile the country's most popular politician, erstwhile Prime Minister Imran Khan, is in prison. The results of these choices are so rather predictable; the question remains how unchangeable governments will turn out to be.
Right-wing populists get Europarliament?
We will besides have European elections in spring. Analysts, commentators and the European political class have long feared the success of the anti-European extremist organization of the right.
There is no uncertainty that it is again enjoying a good economical situation in Europe. Its representatives regulation in Italy and Hungary. Anti-European and Enemy to Migrants Freedom organization She won the most votes in November in the elections of the Netherlands – although if a government is formed, it is within a coalition that exterminates its extremist blade.
In Germany, the alternate to Germany since the summertime of 2023 has occupied in polls Second place, and October elections to Bavarian and Hessen national parliaments showed that this utmost right-wing organization can do well not only in the Lands of the erstwhile GDR but besides in prosperous districts on the western side of the country. In France, for six months, polls organization preferences are led by the National Assembly of Marine Le Pen.
Radical Right It is not strong adequate to break the conventional dominance of a large coalition of chadeks, social democrats, greens and liberals in the future of the Euro-Parliament, but it can evidence its best consequence in the past of the Euro-Elections. This consequence will politically weaken not only any plans for ambitious reforms of the European Union but besides European solidarity, strengthening the policies of national egoisms.
There will most likely besides be parliamentary elections in the UK in 2024. All indicates that after 14 years with power they will yet say goodbye to the Tories and the fresh Prime Minister will be the leader of the Labourers Sir Keir Starmer. This is 1 of the changes next year that can be expected with hope.
Is Trump coming back?
However, the most crucial elections await us in November in the United States. Everything points to a replay of the Biden–Trump duel 4 years ago. Trump's start in the primaries of the Republican organization has been late blocked – under the provisions of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, prohibiting the public function of those who, in office, engaged in rebellion against the government of the States – by the Colorado ultimate Court and Maine State Secretary. However, it is hard to anticipate the legal strategy to be able to block Trump's return. most likely the final decision, alternatively in favour of the erstwhile president, will be made by the ultimate Court, dominated by very conservative judges, including 3 nominees just now by Trump.
In the race for the Trump Republican organization nomination He's definitely driving., with average support exceeding 60%. Surveys over the last 2 weeks, investigating his support in the presidential clash with Biden, besides indicate more frequently the triumph of the erstwhile than the current president – although the differences here are minimal.
Support for Biden's presidency sits on average poll a level of little than 40%. Gallup Research in November, they showed that the President's work is peculiarly poorly assessed in areas specified as abroad policy and the economy, where it is well judged by less than 1 3rd of the respondents. And that's what the economy might be decisive for who America chooses. Biden's base is divided in addition, and even quarrelled and demobilized by the war in Gaza and contradictory assessments of administration policy against the conflict.
On the another hand, in fresh years, Democrats have frequently done better than expected, and the possible of another Trump presidency can scare adequate Americans. In the interests of the Democrats, it may work again that Republicans associate present with a socially unacceptable ultimate Court conviction that He took the American right to abortion as a constitutional law.
What would it mean to get Trump back? In the States, analysts fear that his second word will be much more authoritative than his first. Trump, during the pre-campania, announced mass deportations of migrants, unknown since the 1950s, considered sending the National defender to the major cities ruled by democrats, allegedly incapable to guarantee the safety of their residents, announced that the Justice Department would subjugate straight to the president and repress political opponents, headed by Biden and his family.
In the global arena, we would have the return of America First policy, leaving many American allies on the ice. Trump's re-presidentship may besides mean fresh tensions in American-Chinese relations. Trump considers China a major threat to the US, attacking Biden besides soft Beijing policy and may want to show its voters that unlike Sleepy Joe can be tough. In turn, the Chinese can besides choose an escalation policy to dissuade their own citizens from interior problems.
The economical recovery after the abolition of the covid restrictions proved weaker in 2023 than hoped. The crisis is crucial for the Chinese economy in the construction industry. The discontent of young people grows. In this situation, anti-American, nationalist mobilization can be considered a forward escape.
Is Ukraine going to be alone?
Trump's triumph may besides mean that Ukraine will be alone. Today, the erstwhile president announces an immediate turn of the hen with American aid for Kiev and an immediate end to the war.
The situation of Ukraine is already hard today. This year's counter-offensive did not bring a affirmative breakthrough to Kiev in the war. In the United States clearly The support for further support for Kiev is crumbling. The Americans late donated a $250 million military aid package to Ukraine, but it's a drop in the sea of needs. Meanwhile, a fresh large aid package worth over $60 billion is stuck in Congress. The package from the European Union is blocked by Hungary, although how reported "Financial Times", the Union is working on a Plan B to let it to pass on EUR 20 billion to Kiev, circumventing Budapest's objections.
However, doubts arise as to whether the West, including the Biden administration, has adequate determination to support the Ukrainians' fight until the triumph over Russia, or there will be force to scope an agreement. This would mean normalising the business of east Ukraine by Russia and freezing the conflict that would let Russia to strengthen, regroup and attack again. This is simply a very dangerous script not only for Ukraine, but besides for Poland.
Without hope of improvement in the mediate East
The mediate East will besides be an area of instability. Israel announces that the war in Gaza will last many months. Israel's nonsubjective is inactive to destruct Hamas in Gaza, which, if at all, means a further humanitarian disaster and tragedy of the Palestinian population.
After the war, we will at least be occupied by parts of Gaza. At least present Israel is determined that power in Gaza should not be taken over by the Palestinian Authority and that there should be no real Palestinian state on the table. And without a solution No peace in the region is possible.
The global community is besides afraid about the escalation and internationalisation of the conflict, notably by entering the games of Iran-supported armed groups. The Yemeni Huti have late intensified attacks on American ships in the Red Sea. More and more ships are escaping the waters in fear of attacks. In the meantime, it is crucial for global freight traffic as a "corridor" leading to the Suez Canal, through which the shortest maritime way from Asia to Europe runs. The blockade of this road would have serious economical repercussions.
Analysts foretell that the global economy will avoid recession next year. Growth and rebound are expected to slow down in 2025. But unforeseen events, specified as the internationalization of the conflict in the mediate East, the breakdown of Ukraine's defence or the war on Taiwan, can radically change these predictions.
